Will actuaries be replaced by AI?
Updated
Actuaries score 47 of 100 for AI exposure. The largest share of their task time, 76%, is work AI speeds up while they stay in charge. AI can take over 8% outright, and 16% stays with people.
- 8% AI can do it
- 76% AI helps
- 16% Needs a person
Moderate exposure
Higher than 67% of the 923 occupations we scored.
Task by task
We graded 15 tasks, listed here from most to least exposed. AI can do 1 of them today, speeds up 11 and leaves 3 to people.
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Analyze statistical information to estimate mortality, accident, sickness, disability, and retirement rates. AI can run analysis code and fit models; actuary validates. | 60% AI helps |
| Construct probability tables for events such as fires, natural disasters, and unemployment, based on analysis of statistical data and other pertinent information. Probability tables from data are computational; AI builds, actuary reviews. | 60% AI can do it |
| Ascertain premium rates required and cash reserves and liabilities necessary to ensure payment of future benefits. Core pricing and reserving math AI can draft; actuary signs off. | 55% AI helps |
| Explain changes in contract provisions to customers. AI drafts clear customer explanations; staff review sensitive cases and questions. | 55% AI helps |
| Design, review, and help administer insurance, annuity and pension plans, determining financial soundness and calculating premiums. Plan design and soundness tests need expert judgment; AI speeds calculations. | 50% AI helps |
| Determine policy contract provisions for each type of insurance. AI drafts policy wording from templates; actuary and counsel approve provisions. | 45% AI helps |
| Determine, or help determine, company policy, and explain complex technical matters to company executives, government officials, shareholders, policyholders, or the public. AI drafts briefings and explanations; actuary leads executive discussions and policy. | 35% AI helps |
| Provide expertise to help financial institutions manage risks and maximize returns associated with investment products or credit offerings. AI speeds risk modeling; expert advice still needs human judgment. | 35% AI helps |
| Manage credit and help price corporate security offerings. AI supports pricing models and credit analysis; accountable experts decide. | 35% AI helps |
| Collaborate with programmers, underwriters, accounts, claims experts, and senior management to help companies develop plans for new lines of business or improvements to existing business. Team collaboration needs people; AI helps with summaries and documents. | 30% AI helps |
Show the other 5 tasks
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Provide advice to clients on a contract basis, working as a consultant. Client advice relies on relationships; AI assists research and written recommendations. | 30% AI helps |
| Determine equitable basis for distributing surplus earnings under participating insurance and annuity contracts in mutual companies. Surplus fairness is judgment work; AI helps model allocation scenarios. | 28% AI helps |
| Negotiate terms and conditions of reinsurance with other companies. Live negotiation with counterparties; AI only prepares term comparisons. | 18% Needs a person |
| Testify before public agencies on proposed legislation affecting businesses. Live testimony is personal and accountable; AI helps draft notes. | 15% Needs a person |
| Testify in court as expert witness or to provide legal evidence on matters such as the value of potential lifetime earnings of a person disabled or killed in an accident. Courtroom testimony carries legal accountability; AI assists only with calculations. | 12% Needs a person |
How actuaries compare
All occupations (923)
Computer and mathematical (36)
Pay and outlook in the US
- Median pay
- $130,000 a year, May 2025
- People employed
- 26,670 in the US, May 2025
- Projected change in jobs
- +9.2% from 2024 to 2034
Skills to build
- Validate mortality models fitted in IBM SPSS Statistics
- Build probability tables for fires, disasters and unemployment in Excel
- Sign off reserve and premium calculations as appointed actuary
- Hold an Associate or Fellow actuarial credential from SOA or CAS
- Negotiate reinsurance terms directly with counterparties
- Present pricing and reserve findings in Power BI and PowerPoint
Safer roles nearby
A related occupation with a lower score.
Questions about actuaries and AI
Will AI replace actuaries?
Partly. About 4 in 10 working hours go to tasks AI can already do, mostly fitting mortality and disability rate models and building probability tables. Pricing, reserving and sign-off stay with people, since an actuary validates AI output and carries the accountability for it.
Will AI take over actuary jobs?
AI can already do 8% of the task time for actuaries and speeds up another 76%. People still do 16% of it. The US has 26,670 actuary jobs, with a projected change of +9.2% from 2024 to 2034.
Which actuary tasks is AI taking over?
Probability tables and mortality rate estimates are the most exposed, each scoring 60 on exposure. AI can build probability tables for fires, natural disasters and unemployment from raw data because the work is computational. It can also run analysis code to fit mortality, disability and retirement rate models, which the actuary then checks.
Which actuary tasks stay human?
Expert testimony, reinsurance negotiation and public testimony stay with people. Courtroom testimony on lost lifetime earnings carries legal accountability, and live reinsurance negotiation happens with counterparties face to face. AI only assists with calculations and term comparisons, so the person in the room remains the one answering for the position.
How do actuaries stay valuable with AI?
Take responsibility for sign-off and the judgment calls that AI leaves open. Check every AI-drafted reserve and premium calculation in Excel and SQL before it goes out. Keep an FSA or FCAS credential current, since regulators and employers still ask for it. Move into surplus allocation design for participating contracts, where fairness judgment is the work.
Related jobs
Next steps for actuaries
Check which roles in your team AI can take on
We map your team's tasks, show what AI can do today and build the automations that pay back first.
Related topics
- Jobs AI can't replaceCement masons score lowest, at 8.
- Jobs most at risk from AIProofreaders score highest, at 76.
- High-paying jobs with low AI exposureRadiologists earn a median $420,860 and score 46.
- Entry-level jobs with low AI exposureCement masons need little prior training and score 8.
- Jobs AI speeds up the mostFor natural sciences managers, AI speeds up 96% of task time.
- AI and jobs in Malta15 iGaming roles graded task by task.
- Skills that keep work humanThe skills to build in the jobs AI changes least.
- Jobs A to ZEvery job we publish, by first letter.
- AI exposure by industryAverage scores for 22 occupation groups.
- Write a CV screening software can readHow applicant tracking systems read a CV, and what to change.
- AI for businessesThe tasks to automate first in each team and industry.
- How we score AI exposureThe grading, the weights and every source.