Will AI replace surgeons?
Updated
Orthopedic surgeons score 29 of 100 for AI exposure. The largest share of their task time, 53%, is work AI speeds up while they stay in charge. AI can take over 7% outright, and 40% stays with people.
- 7% AI can do it
- 53% AI helps
- 40% Needs a person
Low exposure
Lower than 64% of the 923 occupations we scored.
Task by task
We graded 15 tasks, listed here from most to least exposed. AI can do 1 of them today, speeds up 8 and leaves 6 to people.
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Prepare case histories. Ambient scribes and LLMs can draft case histories from notes. | 70% AI can do it |
| Manage surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures, or procurement of supplies and equipment. AI can draft schedules and procurement lists; managers decide. | 55% AI helps |
| Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure. Synthesizes history and exam data; surgeon still decides necessity. | 45% AI helps |
| Order and interpret the results of laboratory tests and diagnostic imaging procedures. AI reads imaging and suggests lab workups; physician confirms results. | 40% AI helps |
| Prescribe preoperative and postoperative treatments and procedures, such as sedatives, diets, antibiotics, or preparation and treatment of the patient's operative area. Order sets and decision support help; prescribing stays accountable. | 40% AI helps |
| Refer patient to medical specialist or other practitioners when necessary. AI can draft referral letters; choosing the specialist is clinical. | 35% AI helps |
| Conduct research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes related to musculoskeletal injuries and diseases. AI aids literature and data analysis; trials need humans. | 30% AI helps |
| Diagnose bodily disorders and orthopedic conditions, and provide treatments, such as medicines and surgeries, in clinics, hospital wards, or operating rooms. AI supports diagnostic reasoning; treatment delivery stays in person. | 30% AI helps |
| Diagnose or treat disorders of the musculoskeletal system. AI aids diagnostic reasoning; surgical treatment needs physical presence. | 30% AI helps |
| Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff. Leading a live team requires interpersonal judgement and presence. | 15% Needs a person |
Show the other 5 tasks
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Provide consultation and surgical assistance to other physicians and surgeons. Live consultation and surgical assistance need human presence. | 15% Needs a person |
| Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk. Hands on physical exam and live patient contact. | 10% Needs a person |
| Examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility. Physical inspection of instruments and rooms needs a person. | 5% Needs a person |
| Follow established surgical techniques during the operation. Hands on surgical technique in the operating room. | 3% Needs a person |
| Operate on patient's musculoskeletal system to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patient's functions. Physical surgery on living tissue, no meaningful AI role. | 2% Needs a person |
How orthopedic surgeons compare
All occupations (923)
Healthcare practitioners and technical (89)
Pay and outlook in the US
- Median pay
- $358,550 a year, May 2025
- People employed
- 14,100 in the US, May 2025
- Projected change in jobs
- +4.0% from 2024 to 2034
Skills to build
- Draft and sign off case histories in Epic Systems
- Check AI-drafted orders and imaging reads in EMR software
- Plan implant placement in image-guided surgery software
- Perform hands-on fracture repair and joint reconstruction surgery
- Lead operating room teams through live case coordination
- Hold board certification from the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery
Safer roles nearby
3 related occupations with lower scores.
Questions about orthopedic surgeons and AI
Will surgeons be replaced by AI?
Partly. About 3 in 10 working hours go to tasks AI can already do, mostly preparing case histories and scheduling surgery services. Physical surgery, patient examination and leading the operating room team stay with surgeons because they need a person in the room.
Which orthopedic surgeon tasks is AI taking over?
Preparing case histories has an exposure score of 70, the highest in this job. Ambient scribes and LLMs can draft histories from notes, and AI can draft surgery schedules and procurement lists for managers to approve.
Which orthopedic surgeon tasks stay human?
Operating on the musculoskeletal system scores 2 for exposure, the lowest in this job. Surgery on living tissue needs a surgeon's hands, and following surgical technique in the operating room scores 3. Examining patients and leading live teams also stay human, scoring 10 and 15.
How do orthopedic surgeons stay valuable as AI spreads?
Keep operating hands-on, since surgery is the least exposed task. Check every AI-drafted case history in Epic Systems or MEDITECH before signing. Use image-guided surgery software for implant planning, and lead the operating room team through live case coordination.
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