Will referees be replaced by AI?
Updated
Referees score 28 of 100 for AI exposure. 60% of their task time still needs a person. AI can do 11% today and speed up another 29%.
- 11% AI can do it
- 29% AI helps
- 60% Needs a person
Low exposure
Lower than 66% of the 923 occupations we scored.
Task by task
We graded 16 tasks, listed here from most to least exposed. AI can do 3 of them today, speeds up 4 and leaves 9 to people.
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Compile scores and other athletic records. Compiling scores and records is routine data work AI handles well. | 80% AI can do it |
| Research and study players and teams to anticipate issues that might arise in future engagements. Researching team and player histories is strong AI work with review. | 75% AI can do it |
| Teach and explain the rules and regulations governing a specific sport. AI can draft rule explanations and materials; a person delivers the teaching. | 65% AI helps |
| Verify scoring calculations before competition winners are announced. Recalculating scores is software work; a person reviews the result. | 65% AI can do it |
| Report to regulating organizations regarding sporting activities, complaints made, and actions taken or needed, such as fines or other disciplinary actions. AI can draft routine regulatory reports; official signs off. | 55% AI helps |
| Verify credentials of participants in sporting events, and make other qualifying determinations, such as starting order or handicap number. Document and handicap checks suit AI, but in-person ID checks remain. | 50% AI helps |
| Resolve claims of rule infractions or complaints by participants and assess any necessary penalties, according to regulations. Live disputes need a person, but rule lookup and write-ups can be AI-assisted. | 22% AI helps |
| Keep track of event times, including race times and elapsed time during game segments, starting or stopping play when necessary. Real-time timekeeping and stopping play needs a person on site. | 15% Needs a person |
| Confer with other sporting officials, coaches, players, and facility managers to provide information, coordinate activities, and discuss problems. Live conversations with coaches and staff need human presence. | 12% Needs a person |
| Judge performances in sporting competitions to award points, impose scoring penalties, and determine results. Visual judging of live performances needs trained human eyes. | 12% Needs a person |
Show the other 6 tasks
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Officiate at sporting events, games, or competitions, to maintain standards of play and to ensure that game rules are observed. Live on-field judgement and physical presence drive officiating. | 10% Needs a person |
| Inspect game sites for compliance with regulations or safety requirements. Physical site inspection requires being on location. | 8% Needs a person |
| Inspect sporting equipment or examine participants to ensure compliance with event and safety regulations. Hands-on equipment checks and in-person participant examination. | 8% Needs a person |
| Signal participants or other officials to make them aware of infractions or to otherwise regulate play or competition. Physical signalling to players during live play. | 5% Needs a person |
| Start races and competitions. Physically starting races and signalling competitors on site. | 5% Needs a person |
| Direct participants to assigned areas, such as starting blocks or penalty areas. Physically directing athletes to areas during the event. | 5% Needs a person |
How referees compare
All occupations (923)
Arts, design, entertainment, sports and media (40)
Pay and outlook in the US
- Median pay
- $40,710 a year, May 2025
- People employed
- 15,780 in the US, May 2025
- Projected change in jobs
- +5.2% from 2024 to 2034
Skills to build
- Run in-person equipment and participant checks before every event
- Verify score recalculations in Microsoft Excel before announcing winners
- Review AI-drafted rule explanations in Microsoft Word before publishing
- Sign off regulatory fine reports in Adobe Acrobat for governing bodies
- Review match footage in video editing software to confirm disputed calls
- Make on-field calls and signal players during live play
Safer roles nearby
4 related occupations with lower scores.
Questions about referees and AI
Will AI replace referees?
Partly. About 3 in 10 of a referee's working hours go to tasks AI can already do, mostly compiling scores and records and researching team and player histories. Live on-field judgement, signalling players and on-site equipment checks stay with people because they need a person physically present.
Which referee tasks is AI taking over?
Compiling scores and records has the highest exposure at 80 out of 100, and AI handles this routine data work well. Researching team and player histories scores 75 and is strong AI work with a referee reviewing the output. Verifying scoring calculations scores 65, since software recalculates and a person checks the result.
Which referee tasks stay human?
Officiating at events scores 10 out of 100 on exposure, because live judgement and physical presence drive the call. Signalling players and starting races score 5, since both need a person on site. Inspecting game sites and equipment scores 8, because hands-on checks require being on location.
How do referees stay valuable as AI spreads?
Keep on-field officiating and player signalling as your core work. Check score recalculations in Microsoft Excel before winners are announced, review AI-drafted regulatory reports in Adobe Acrobat before signing, and use video editing software to examine footage behind disputed calls. Stay current on the sport's rulebook so you can explain rules to teams yourself.
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