Will refinery operators be replaced by AI?
Updated
Refinery operators score 33 of 100 for AI exposure. The largest share of their task time, 57%, is work AI speeds up while they stay in charge. AI can take over 9% outright, and 34% stays with people.
- 9% AI can do it
- 57% AI helps
- 34% Needs a person
Moderate exposure
Lower than 57% of the 923 occupations we scored.
Task by task
We graded 24 tasks, listed here from most to least exposed. AI can do 3 of them today, speeds up 12 and leaves 9 to people.
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Calculate test result values, using standard formulas. Standard formula calculations on test results are fully automatable. | 85% AI can do it |
| Record and compile operating data, instrument readings, documentation, and results of laboratory analyses. Compiling readings and lab results into logs is routine data entry. | 80% AI can do it |
| Prepare calculations for receipts and deliveries of oil and oil products. Receipt and delivery volume calculations follow fixed formulas from meter data. | 75% AI can do it |
| Read and analyze specifications, schedules, logs, test results, and laboratory recommendations to determine how to set equipment controls to produce the required qualities and quantities of products. LLMs can read specs and logs quickly; operator still sets controls. | 60% AI helps |
| Plan movement of products through lines to processing, storage, and shipping units, using knowledge of system interconnections and capacities. Scheduling software can model line routing; planner reviews and approves. | 50% AI helps |
| Read automatic gauges at specified intervals to determine the flow rate of oil into or from tanks, and the amount of oil in tanks. Telemetry readings can be auto-logged and calculated; field reads remain manual. | 50% AI helps |
| Monitor process indicators, instruments, gauges, and meters to detect and report any possible problems. AI can flag anomalies in sensor data, though field gauge checks stay manual. | 45% AI helps |
| Operate control panels to coordinate and regulate process variables such as temperature and pressure, and to direct product flow rate, according to process schedules. Advanced process control software already tunes setpoints; operator oversees. | 45% AI helps |
| Verify that incoming and outgoing products are moving through the correct meters, and that meters are working properly. Meter flow reconciliation and fault checks can be automated from data. | 40% AI helps |
| Control or operate manifold and pumping systems to circulate liquids through a petroleum refinery. Manifold control is largely automated; operator still handles physical switching. | 35% AI helps |
Show the other 14 tasks
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Synchronize activities with other pumphouses to ensure a continuous flow of products and a minimum of contamination between products. Scheduling handoffs between pumphouses can be software-assisted, still coordinated by people. | 35% AI helps |
| Coordinate shutdowns and major projects. AI can draft shutdown schedules and checklists; coordination needs people. | 35% AI helps |
| Operate auxiliary equipment and control multiple processing units during distilling or treating operations, moving controls that regulate valves, pumps, compressors, and auxiliary equipment. Multi-unit control panel work is partly automated but needs hands-on operation. | 30% AI helps |
| Signal other workers by telephone or radio to operate pumps, open and close valves, and check temperatures. Radio and phone calls could be drafted or logged, but field coordination stays human. | 25% AI helps |
| Start pumps and open valves or use automated equipment to regulate the flow of oil in pipelines and into and out of tanks. Valve and pump starts are physical; AI helps only with flow planning. | 25% AI helps |
| Perform tests to check the qualities and grades of products, such as assessing levels of bottom sediment, water, and foreign materials in oil samples, using centrifugal testers. Centrifuge sample testing is hands-on lab work with physical equipment. | 15% Needs a person |
| Maintain and repair equipment, or report malfunctioning equipment to supervisors so that repairs can be scheduled. Physical equipment repair is hands-on; only fault reporting is digitizable. | 12% Needs a person |
| Patrol units to monitor the amount of oil in storage tanks, and to verify that activities and operations are safe, efficient, and in compliance with regulations. Physical patrols of tank farms and safety checks need on-site presence. | 10% Needs a person |
| Collect product samples by turning bleeder valves, or by lowering containers into tanks to obtain oil samples. Opening bleeder valves and lowering sample containers is physical work. | 5% Needs a person |
| Inspect pipelines, tightening connections and lubricating valves as necessary. Tightening pipe connections and lubricating valves requires physical work on site. | 5% Needs a person |
| Clean interiors of processing units by circulating chemicals and solvents within units. Circulating solvents through unit interiors is physical plant work. | 5% Needs a person |
| Conduct general housekeeping of units, including wiping up oil spills and performing general cleaning duties. Wiping spills and cleaning units is manual physical labor. | 3% Needs a person |
| Clamp seals around valves to secure tanks. Clamping seals onto valves is a manual, hands-on task. | 3% Needs a person |
| Lower thermometers into tanks to obtain temperature readings. Lowering thermometers into tanks is physical field work. | 3% Needs a person |
How refinery operators compare
All occupations (923)
Production (107)
Pay and outlook in the US
- Median pay
- $96,710 a year, May 2025
- People employed
- 33,160 in the US, May 2025
- Projected change in jobs
- -1.9% from 2024 to 2034
Skills to build
- Set process controls in SCADA software for product quality
- Program and troubleshoot PLC software logic on pumping systems
- Check line routing schedules for capacity limits before approval
- Audit automated receipt and delivery calculations in Microsoft Excel
- Reconcile inventory tracking records against tank gauge readings
- Take manual tank gauging and temperature readings in the field
Safer roles nearby
5 related occupations with lower scores.
Questions about refinery operators and AI
Will AI replace refinery operators?
Partly. About 3 in 10 working hours go to tasks AI can already do, mostly calculating test result values and recording and compiling operating data into logs. Sampling, gauging manually and valve work stay with people, because the work happens on site at the tank and the unit.
Which tasks is AI taking over for refinery operators?
Calculating test result values scores 85 on exposure, since standard formulas run on fixed inputs with no judgment needed. Preparing receipt and delivery volume calculations scores 75, because those volumes follow fixed formulas from meter data. Both tasks move to software first, and the operator reviews the output.
Which refinery operator tasks stay human?
Collecting product samples by turning bleeder valves scores 5 on exposure, and clamping seals onto valves scores 3. Both need a person's hands on equipment in the field. Wiping spills and cleaning units also scores 3, since it is physical labor that a machine would have to carry out in the plant.
How can refinery operators stay valuable as AI spreads?
Set controls in SCADA and PLC software from specs and lab recommendations, since that step still needs a person. Check AI-made calculations in Excel and reconcile them against tank gauge readings. Take on the line routing review step, and keep up field sampling and gauging skills.
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