Will toolmakers be replaced by AI?
Updated
Toolmakers score 29 of 100 for AI exposure. The largest share of their task time, 60%, is work AI speeds up while they stay in charge. The other 40% stays with people.
- 60% AI helps
- 40% Needs a person
Low exposure
Lower than 64% of the 923 occupations we scored.
Task by task
We graded 17 tasks, listed here from most to least exposed. AI can't do any of them end to end yet. It speeds up 10 and leaves 7 to people.
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Develop and design new tools and dies, using computer-aided design software. CAD copilots and generative design tools speed up tool and die design. | 70% AI helps |
| Select metals to be used from a range of metals and alloys, based on properties such as hardness or heat tolerance. AI can compare alloy properties and recommend metals from specifications. | 60% AI helps |
| Design jigs, fixtures, and templates for use as work aids in the fabrication of parts or products. AI can generate jig and fixture designs from requirements and CAD. | 60% AI helps |
| Study blueprints, sketches, models, or specifications to plan sequences of operations for fabricating tools, dies, or assemblies. AI can draft machining sequences from prints; machinist reviews and decides. | 55% AI helps |
| Visualize and compute dimensions, sizes, shapes, and tolerances of assemblies, based on specifications. AI can compute tolerance stackups and dimensions from specs quickly. | 50% AI helps |
| Verify dimensions, alignments, and clearances of finished parts for conformance to specifications, using measuring instruments such as calipers, gauge blocks, micrometers, or dial indicators. AI can interpret measurement data, but inspection needs physical gauges. | 35% AI helps |
| Inspect finished dies for smoothness, contour conformity, and defects. Visual and tactile die inspection mostly needs a person with tools. | 30% AI helps |
| Measure, mark, and scribe metal or plastic stock to lay out machining, using instruments such as protractors, micrometers, scribes, or rulers. Layout planning can be assisted by software, but marking is physical. | 30% AI helps |
| Cut, shape, and trim blanks or blocks to specified lengths or shapes, using power saws, power shears, rules, and hand tools. Programmed saws and shears could automate some cutting, but setup is manual. | 30% AI helps |
| Conduct test runs with completed tools or dies to ensure that parts meet specifications, making adjustments as necessary. Test runs need a person running equipment and judging part output. | 25% AI helps |
Show the other 7 tasks
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Set up and operate conventional or computer numerically controlled machine tools such as lathes, milling machines, or grinders to cut, bore, grind, or otherwise shape parts to prescribed dimensions and finishes. Machine setup and operation requires hands-on physical skill at the machine. | 15% Needs a person |
| Set up and operate drill presses to drill and tap holes in parts for assembly. Drill press setup and tapping are hands-on machine operations. | 15% Needs a person |
| Fit and assemble parts to make, repair, or modify dies, jigs, gauges, and tools, using machine tools, hand tools, or welders. Fitting and welding parts requires hands-on manual skill and physical work. | 12% Needs a person |
| Set pyrometer controls of heat-treating furnaces and feed or place parts, tools, or assemblies into furnaces to harden. Loading furnaces and setting controls requires physical handling and presence. | 12% Needs a person |
| File, grind, shim, and adjust different parts to properly fit them together. Filing, grinding and shimming are hands-on fitting tasks. | 10% Needs a person |
| Lift, position, and secure machined parts on surface plates or worktables, using hoists, vises, v-blocks, or angle plates. Physically lifting and positioning heavy workpieces on fixtures and tables. | 8% Needs a person |
| Smooth and polish flat and contoured surfaces of parts or tools, using scrapers, abrasive stones, files, emery cloths, or power grinders. Hand scraping and polishing surfaces is manual, tactile work. | 8% Needs a person |
How toolmakers compare
All occupations (923)
Production (107)
Pay and outlook in the US
- Median pay
- $64,050 a year, May 2025
- People employed
- 56,930 in the US, May 2025
- Projected change in jobs
- -9.2% from 2024 to 2034
Skills to build
- Set up and run CNC lathes and milling machines
- Hand scrape and fit dies to tight clearances
- Model and check designs in SolidWorks or AutoCAD
- Verify tolerances with micrometers, dial indicators, and gauge blocks
- Review machining sequences drafted from prints
Safer roles nearby
5 related occupations with lower scores.
Questions about toolmakers and AI
Will AI replace toolmakers?
Partly. About 3 in 10 working hours go to tasks AI can already do, mostly CAD tool design and jig and fixture design. Hands-on work stays with toolmakers, since fitting, filing, and machine setup need a person at the bench and the machine.
Which tasks is AI taking over in toolmaking?
Designing new tools and dies in CAD scores 70, the highest exposure in this job, because CAD copilots and generative design tools speed up drafting. Selecting metals scores 60, since AI can compare alloy hardness and heat tolerance from a spec. Jig and fixture design also scores 60, as AI can generate layouts from requirements.
Which toolmaker tasks stay with people?
Hand scraping and polishing scores 8, the lowest in this job, because the work is manual and tactile. Filing, grinding, and shimming score 10 since parts must be fitted by touch. Machine setup and operation scores 15, because a lathe or grinder needs a person at the workpiece.
How can toolmakers stay valuable as AI spreads?
Stay on the bench and the machine, and check AI output with physical gauges. Setting up CNC lathes and mills, fitting dies manually, and scraping surfaces are hard to automate. Use SolidWorks or AutoCAD to check AI-generated designs for clearance and fit. Verify AI tolerance stackups with micrometers, dial indicators, and gauge blocks before parts go out.
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Next steps for toolmakers
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