Will AI replace truck drivers?
Updated
Truck drivers score 27 of 100 for AI exposure. 61% of their task time still needs a person. AI can do 16% today and speed up another 23%.
- 16% AI can do it
- 23% AI helps
- 61% Needs a person
Low exposure
Lower than 67% of the 923 occupations we scored.
Task by task
We graded 29 tasks, listed here from most to least exposed. AI can do 4 of them today, speeds up 6 and leaves 19 to people.
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations. ELD and log software already automates much of this record keeping. | 70% AI can do it |
| Read bills of lading to determine assignment details. Reading bills of lading is document extraction AI does well. | 65% AI can do it |
| Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy. Document checks against bills of lading are text comparison AI handles well. | 62% AI can do it |
| Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions. Route optimization software already does most of this planning. | 62% AI can do it |
| Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes. AI can parse and verify dispatch messages, with driver confirmation. | 55% AI helps |
| Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles. AI can draft defect and incident reports from driver notes. | 45% AI helps |
| Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes. Navigation software already reads maps; AI assists route choice. | 40% AI helps |
| Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods. AI can explain hazmat rules, but handling dangerous goods is human. | 40% AI helps |
| Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required. Digital signature capture helps, but handing over goods is physical. | 30% AI helps |
| Operate equipment, such as truck cab computers, CB radios, phones, or global positioning systems (GPS) equipment to exchange necessary information with bases, supervisors, or other drivers. Voice and assistant tools help with device use, but mostly hands on. | 30% AI helps |
Show the other 19 tasks
| Task | AI exposure |
|---|---|
| Inventory and inspect goods to be moved to determine quantities and conditions. Counting and condition checks of goods need physical inspection. | 18% Needs a person |
| Operate idle reduction systems or auxiliary power systems to generate power from alternative sources, such as fuel cells, to reduce idling time, to heat or cool truck cabins, or to provide power for other equipment. Idle reduction controls are mostly physical switches with limited AI role. | 15% Needs a person |
| Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order. Physical equipment checks need hands on inspection; AI only assists logging. | 12% Needs a person |
| Give directions to laborers who are packing goods and moving them onto trailers. Directing laborers is live supervision requiring in person judgement. | 12% Needs a person |
| Check conditions of trailers after contents have been unloaded to ensure that there has been no damage. Post unload trailer damage check is a physical visual inspection. | 10% Needs a person |
| Follow special cargo-related procedures, such as checking refrigeration systems for frozen foods or providing food or water for livestock. Sensor monitoring helps, but livestock care and checks are physical. | 10% Needs a person |
| Inspect loads to ensure that cargo is secure. Confirming cargo is secure needs physical, hands-on inspection. | 8% Needs a person |
| Perform basic vehicle maintenance tasks, such as adding oil, fuel, or radiator fluid, performing minor repairs, or washing trucks. Fueling, oil checks and washing are physical hands-on work. | 5% Needs a person |
| Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned. Backing into docks following crew signals needs live physical driving. | 5% Needs a person |
| Drive trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons, including tractor-trailer combinations, to transport and deliver products, livestock, or other materials. Driving a loaded tractor trailer remains a human physical task today. | 5% Needs a person |
| Drive trucks to weigh stations before and after loading and along routes in compliance with state regulations. Driving to weigh stations is physical driving, not AI work. | 5% Needs a person |
| Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary. Loading and unloading freight is heavy physical labor. | 5% Needs a person |
| Remove debris from loaded trailers. Clearing debris from trailers is physical manual cleanup. | 5% Needs a person |
| Secure cargo for transport, using ropes, blocks, chain, binders, or covers. Strapping and chaining cargo is hands on physical securement. | 5% Needs a person |
| Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps. Wrapping and strapping goods is physical packing work. | 5% Needs a person |
| Perform emergency roadside repairs, such as changing tires or installing light bulbs, tire chains, or spark plugs. Roadside tire changes and bulb swaps are physical repairs on site. | 4% Needs a person |
| Crank trailer landing gear up or down to safely secure vehicles. Cranking landing gear is manual physical work. | 3% Needs a person |
| Couple or uncouple trailers by changing trailer jack positions, connecting or disconnecting air or electrical lines, or manipulating fifth-wheel locks. Connecting air lines and fifth wheel locks is physical work. | 3% Needs a person |
| Install or remove special equipment, such as tire chains, grader blades, plow blades, or sanders. Fitting chains and plow blades is physical equipment work. | 3% Needs a person |
How truck drivers compare
All occupations (923)
Transportation and material moving (52)
Pay and outlook in the US
- Median pay
- $58,640 a year, May 2025
- People employed
- 2.1 million in the US, May 2025
- Projected change in jobs
- +3.8% from 2024 to 2034
Skills to build
- Keep hours-of-service logs compliant in ELD software
- Couple and uncouple fifth-wheel trailers safely at each stop
- Back into docks on crew signals without equipment damage
- Run roadside tire changes and light bulb replacements
- Hold a commercial driver's license with air brake endorsement
- Reconcile bills of lading against loads in SAP software
Safer roles nearby
5 related occupations with lower scores.
Questions about truck drivers and AI
Will truck drivers be replaced by AI?
Partly. About 2 in 10 working hours of a truck driver's time go to tasks AI can already do, mostly keeping hours logs and reading bills of lading. Driving, coupling trailers, backing into docks and roadside repairs stay with people because they need a person's hands and judgment on the road.
Will AI take over truck driving?
AI can already do 16% of the task time in truck driving and speeds up another 23%. People still do 61% of it. The US has 2.1 million truck driver jobs, with a projected change of +3.8% from 2024 to 2034.
Which truck driver tasks is AI taking over?
Record keeping goes first. Maintaining hours and vehicle status logs scores 70 on exposure, since ELD and log software already automate much of it. Reading bills of lading (65) and checking load paperwork for completeness (62) are document extraction and text comparison that AI handles well.
Which truck driver tasks stay human?
Physical work stays human. Coupling trailers and cranking landing gear score 3 on exposure because they are manual work with air lines, fifth-wheel locks and steel. Backing into docks on crew signals scores 5 because it needs live driving, and these hands-on tasks make up most of the 61% of task weight that stays human.
How can truck drivers stay valuable?
Learn the exception work that software flags, such as log violations in ELD software and mismatches in SAP software. Keep the commercial driver's license current with air brake and hazmat endorsements. Get fast at coupling, backing and roadside repairs, since those tasks still need you on site.
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